Thursday 23 February 2017

Why democracy is NOT the best form of government? The problem of IOP


After the election of Donald Trump I had penned a blog post on the 'Age of Mahabali'. (http://karmasutratkos.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/trump-harbinger-of-age-of-mahabali.html). After reading that blog, one of my friends remarked that despite being the best system of governance, democracy is pushing people like Donald Trump to the top when there are possibly thousands of far better quality people in the US.  I remained silent.

However, I have always believed that democracy as it exists in countries like US or UK (and in other countries which have simply copied that system) is NOT the best system of governance. This Western style democracy is merely a system of governance which could be perhaps considered the least pernicious. Needless to say, there is always a fine line of difference between the least of evils and the genuinely best.

If Western (UK/US style) democracy was indeed the best system of governance it should have automatically catapulted the most competent, visionary, ethical leaders to the top leadership positions. But as we have seen recently in the case of US elections, which is one of the best examples of democracy, where voting is by and large free from fear of violence, coercion or bribery - it is possible for unpleasant, toxic people to reach the top position.  In Germany, in 1932 also, Hitler's Nazi party got the largest number of votes (effectively, 'won the elections') through a largely free and fair democratic system.  And we are not even going to 'democracies' such as those in Africa, parts of Latin America, Asia etc. where voting and elections are unduly influenced by money, brute power, intimidation and violence.

What then, is the problem with this model of democracy? Isn’t it better to get a leader by majority votes? Isn’t it far better not to have a king or a dictator who will govern a country ruthlessly and more often than not, amass wealth, concentrate power, punish people – all for personal pride, ego and aggrandisement?  All these arguments are fair. But in order to better illustrate the problem of democracy, let me narrate an imaginary story.

Let us imagine that a small chartered jet plane having 70 passengers and having only a pilot, co-pilot and stewardess, is flying from New York to London. By an unfortunate quirk of fate, while the jet is high above the Atlantic Ocean, the main pilot suffers a fatal heart attack and is dead within minutes on his seat. Now, the inexperienced co-pilot takes over, but as luck would have it, all this stress causes him to suddenly feel faint and within minutes, he is also lying unconscious. The plane seems to be flying smoothly as of now, but the panicked stewardess who was informed by the co-pilot before his collapse, thinks it fit to apprise the passengers of the grave situation, after her own efforts to revive either of the two pilots fail. There is no doctor or medical professional on board this plane.

Among the passengers there is a man about 67 years of age, who volunteers to take over the controls in the cockpit. Another brilliant, physically attractive, very fit young man who is a top investment banker also offers his service. This young man of 33 has been a top scorer in mathematics and in his class of Wharton, had scored the highest marks in almost every subject.

Both of them volunteer to take over the controls of the plane using emergency instruction manuals and whatever other resources are at hand to help the plane land somewhere smoothly.  Since there are two contenders, and both seem convinced that they are the best suited to save the plane and the passengers, the stewardess asks the remaining 68 passengers to vote by a show of hands for the person they would like to take charge of the plane.

The investment banker talks of his brilliant intelligence, grasping powers, mathematical prowess etc. for one minute and asks the passengers to vote for him to take over the cockpit. However, he admits he has never flown a plane before.

In his brief self-introduction, the 65 year old man with a minor problem of slight back pain but otherwise fit, says that while his main occupation before retirement was a manager of an insurance company, his hobby was to fly planes by being a member of a flying club. He has over 500 hours of flying experience of different planes.

Whom would the panic-stricken, stressed passengers in this emergency situation vote for? It is a no-brainer. The moment they hear the short speech of the 65 year old man they instantly breathe a collective sigh of relief and unanimously agree that the man with flying expertise and experience must take over the controls, perhaps assisted by the other young man.

This is how good mature democracies are supposed to work, where people think and act intelligently to preserve their own best interests by electing the best suited leader to take them further on the journey of growth, progress and betterment.

Now let us tweak the situation a little. Let us assume that other than the 65 year old man, the stewardess and the two pilots (who are now out of the picture), every other passenger and staff on the plane has the intelligence of a 3- year old normal child.  (Let us ignore for a moment the technicalities of the situation – for example, how these adults are being allowed to travel without escorts etc.)

In this situation, perhaps there is a real danger that these unruly passengers may not listen to the 65 year old man who alone who has the expertise to land the plane safely. They might fight among themselves. Or they might elect someone who has the best muscles, assuming perhaps like 3 year-olds, that physical strength is the most important quality to steer a plane. Or they might vote for the most sweet-looking bloke or lady. There is also a chance they might vote to install in the cockpit, those who are similar to themselves in some way – for example,  those who look similar to them (Black or White or Asian) or speak the same language.

The reason why these mentally challenged passengers are not able to see clearly through the situation is because their limited mental resources do not allow them to think straight through all the diverse information (noise and chatter) thrown at them about race, religion, beauty and so on. Their logical thinking processes are not sufficiently developed for them to think clearly without getting swayed by emotions and various other variables/factors which are not relevant to their situation.

This can often happen in a democracy. When the collective intelligence and moral compass of a society is disturbed by confusing information, emotion, sense of grievance etc. and people in a society do not have sufficient foresight and mental clarity to sift through this maze of information to focus on what is clearly relevant for them; then we see that people end up voting in a haphazard, impulsive manner. 

Normal human beings of 16 years and above do not have the intelligence of 3 year olds. We are rational beings – some of the readers might argue.

Are we really rational? How many us actually go to a supermarket and pick things on impulse because we like the colour of packaging or its attractive presentation? Do we really compare all the products of similar types available in the market place and then buy the best priced and highest quality product which is what rationally we should have done? Do we not have the irrational history of consuming products like Cola soft drinks  which most of us know is far more damaging to our health than plain water or fresh orange juice, simply because they give us fleeting almost emotional satisfaction on our taste buds?

History has proven again and again that societies which tend to get swayed by emotions, past grievances, perceived grievances, stress and incomplete or distorted information etc. tend to elect people who would otherwise never be elected. Because many Germans carried the perception of grievance and unfairness after the 1st world war, they thought it fit to support someone like Hitler who showed the macho promise of teaching all those who wronged the Germans, a lesson.

Hence, the question is not whether the intelligence of a society is of a 3- year old or 15 year old. The more important question is whether the society is bombarded by too much information -  real, fake, perceptions, opinions, bigotry etc. to the extent that the population within that society becomes as confused as a 3- year old with a variety of choices.  A 3-year old may not have the intelligence or logical discrimination to choose which amongst a bar of chocolate, a slice of apple pie or a £50 note, is the best option.  A 3-year old might get logically disoriented when 5 or 6 different complicated variables are thrown at him and asked to sift information that is relevant from the irrelevant pieces of information.  In such a scenario, when pressed to make a decision, the child might decide on impulse or emotion rather than clear logic. For an adult human the same disorientation might set in, when 25 or 30 different variables, strains of thoughts and ideas are bombarded unto his conscious screen.  

Imagine an adult of average intelligence already having his/her own subtle bias/prejudices, and now bombarded with hundreds of messages on social media, informal opinions, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp shares,  television, conventional newspapers, thousands of websites, hoardings etc. Some of these Facebook posts, Whatsapp forwards and Tweets are informal messages with little or no editorial control,  while other messages come through responsible, quality checked, facts-verified sources. The most simplistic messages are very often constructed on personal opinions with poor review of facts, but easier to consume than complicated messages with nuanced arguments. It might not therefore be surprising if the average adult decides to seek refuge in simplistic messages rather than nuanced and complicated arguments from reliable sources. Some of these messages lead people into an imaginary world of conspiracy theories and an alternative world view. It can all lead to a vote based on impulse, emotion, distorted, parochial, bigoted or prejudiced world view.  To the somewhat objective observer, this might look as ludicrous as the plane load of passengers opting for the good looking 33 year old man with no experience instead of the 65 year old flying expert to save their plane.  But I call it the Information Overload Paradox (IOP).

Therefore, it is no surprise that to this adult with overload of simplistic information, Brexit looked far more attractive option to protect Britain or Trump looked like the person most fit to guard US borders from Islamic terror.


Now that I have outlined the great problem of democratic societies in the era of information overload, (and this is only going to get worse), I will not escape without giving the solution for this problem.  But since this post has already become quite long, I think I will outline my holistic solution for this eternal question of governance, both a short-term fix and also the long-term panacea (which comes from the deep annals of Eastern wisdom), in my next blog post. 

©Staju Jacob, 2017.


Staju Jacob is the author of the path-breaking book Karmasutra The Karma of Sex, which deals with the karmic spirituality of consensual sexual actions. This book is available globally on various Amazon sites in Paperback and Kindle, Sony Kobo, Google books, Iphone Ibook etc.  He may be contacted on Twitter @KaRmasutraTKOS 

1 comment:

  1. Excerpts from a message sent by my friend Brian D'Souza - a Mathematician... " I am a mathematician and it's quite evident that over a long period of time democracy will move towards a very bad Nash equilibrium based on a majority vote bank"

    Staju Jacob's reply : "Yes I agree.. In fact average humans in most countries are not very familiar/trained in a game theory kind of thinking and almost always make decisions based on emotion, feelings etc. In this post I have only talked about the impact of Information overload. I think that when information overload happens, people of average intelligence are likely to make even worse decisions than people who have lesser information. That is what I have called the Information Overload Paradox. That is because, unlike machines, humans and their information-processing/decision making abilities are adversely impacted by fatigue, emotion, pressure, stress and fear. Cheers."

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